The flexible quarantine design in Bolivia is bad

The speed of the epidemic is now going to increase

May 30, 2020 Arnold Hagens Corona virus, Health 0

Published in El Pais, 30 May 2020.

Since May 5, I am publishing that the Coronavirus is not under control in Bolivia and despite the fact that the number of new cases is increasing, the Bolivian government has decided to relax the quarantine which is an incredible bad idea.

The virus was not under control during quarantine. It is true that its growth was slow, but it was increasing in the last weeks. Leaving quarantine means it will be accelerating again to the epidemic level
The number of actual cases is probably between 5 and 15 times higher than the confirmed cases. This is because most people do not have severe symptoms. However, these people can still infect others.
The quarantine in Bolivia has given a quite different result than in Europe. So if Europe leaves quarantine, it does not mean that Bolivia can also do it.

The speed of the epidemic is now going to increase since the number of contacts per person will go up in the “flexible quarantine “. And since there are many contagious people, the wave that is coming can be serious. Measures to reduce contacts will not be effective and the experiment on the buses of La Paz has been seen, or the activity in the markets. Many do not respect the physical distance of 1.5 meters, the use of masks or crowds because there are marches and lines to collect wages. With a curfew, it will only be possible for people to do the same in less time, but the contacts and the risk of contagion remain the same.

The first quarantine was not effective just for the last three weeks that there was no control for its respect and the number of infected grew. Now the result of a flexible quarantine will be the spread of the epidemic to an additional 100-200 days. And between 50% and 85% of the population will be infected by increasing the number of deaths. For the reference we are now at 1% according to the models and it is in full growth. No country in the world has chosen to open when it is in full growth, Santa Cruz and Beni are an example and we still do not know the “extra” deaths of COVID-19 from the other provinces that have not yet been reported. But if the government fails, people must be aware to reduce their contacts to the smallest possible.