Published in el Pais, 15 August 2020.
If you think countries in Europe have COVID-19 under control, you are wrong. In the Netherlands COVID-19 began on 29 February with 1 case. In mid-March, the number of new cases was 1350 per day. On July 8 there were only 37 new cases. Now, we are back with 654 new cases per day. The second wave is already a fact. I believe that the origin are the holidays, since people move more and forget that there are measures to prevent contagion. Besides, many thought it was over. Still the death toll is low, about 2 per day, but this may go up soon.
The measures remain more or less the same as in March, but people’s will to obey the measures is no not. What worked well on the first wave, due to the holidays, do not work today and there is a COVID-19 measures fatigue. So it is likely that the government will control more and there are more fines. In the Netherlands, COVID-19 patients are not sent to the hospital, they are sent home and the hospital only for severe cases assessed under strict protocol.
It is not an easy thing for the Dutch, especially during the holidays, but I hope it works and I can report in a few weeks that the second wave of COVID-19 has been controlled. Now, all government institutes, universities and others try to find ways while minimizing damage to the economy as little as possible. In the last 6 months 320 thousand people have lost their jobs and GDP by 2020 has dropped by 6.4%, so with the new measures we do not want to make it worse.
One thing that does help is that there are models of strong cooperation between companies, universities, and the government to make decisions. In addition, there are interest groups that always have the possibility to mention their concerns and these are included when making optimal decisions. Normally, this system is terribly slow, but now there seems to be a consensus that we cannot discuss weeks or months before making a decision. Actions should be taken as soon as possible before cases increase.
In Bolivia, cooperation could save the country. There are groups and individuals who believe that their interests are more important than the lives lost to the epidemic, but no government should allow the good of a group to be above national welfare. Benefiting few does not help control an epidemic.
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